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Knudson: Asking Early - What About Five?

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
February 6, 2012

We’re halfway through the Mountain West men’s basketball regular season - a season that has the distinct possibility of topping last year’s epic run – so let me be the first to ask out loud: Why not five?
 
You may remember our bud, the Mayor of Brackettville, aka Marty Fletcher, uttering those words from the sports desk last season as five MW teams came down the stretch with a real chance and reaching the NCAA Tournament. He was talking about national powers BYU and San Diego State of course, along with MW bubble teams UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State.  

“Why not five teams in the big dance?” the Mayor proclaimed. And for a brief moment, it looked like he might be right. Alas, CSU sputtered down the stretch and New Mexico was passed over (the Lobos were made a No. 4 seed in the NIT tournament). UNLV got in along with the two Conference super powers.

Five turned out to be three.

Most MW fans figured with BYU and Jimmer Fredette having left the league, 2011 was going to be a high water mark for Mountain West hoops. Not so fast, as they say.

Here we are almost a year later and the MW is performing better than one year ago if you buy into stuff like the Conference Ratings Performance Index. The latest Conference RPI ratings have the MW at No. 5 – ahead of the legendary Atlantic Coast Conference. Four league teams have spectacular RPI rankings at the halfway point: UNLV is No. 7; Colorado State is a mind-boggling No. 18, San Diego State No. 21 and hard charging New Mexico No. 41. Getting at least four teams into the expanded NCAA field from the fifth ranked Conference in the country seems like a very strong bet.

But what about a fifth, and who would that be?

How about 18-5 Wyoming, who has already beaten CSU and just knocked off UNLV?

The Cowboys RPI stands at a so-so No. 84 on the strength – or lack thereof – of their non-conference schedule. But that schedule is markedly tougher in the second half of league play and who knows, if the Pokes pull off another upset or two, that RPI could improve significantly in the next month. Wyoming must still play road games against all four of the top teams in the league, starting with a tough test in Albuquerque next weekend. What would a road win or two do for the chances of a Wyoming team with more than 20 victories?

There are no layups in the Mountain West this year. Boise State may not have a Conference win yet, but they’ve taken UNLV into overtime and lost by two points at SDSU. The Broncos will beat someone - probably one of the contenders - before it’s over. Air Force was also playing very tough before a couple of recent poor performances, so they can’t be overlooked. Same with TCU.

UNLV, with a win over North Carolina on their resume, is a lock as is SDSU at this point. New Mexico may be playing the best basketball of any Conference team right now. Almost impossible to see Steve Alford’s team not being in the big dance this season. So besides the outside chances of Wyoming, the other question is Colorado State. Can the Rams avoid a second half collapse like the one they suffered last season? Their RPI is stunning right now, having played teams like Duke and Northern Iowa along with beating San Diego State and Pac 12-leading Colorado to have earned that lofty ranking. Still looming for 15-7 CSU are winnable road games at Boise State, TCU and Air Force, plus home games with Wyoming, UNLV and New Mexico. Win the games they should win and pluck off another one against the Rebels or Lobos, and CSU’s chances on Section Sunday will be excellent.
 
With the Conference tourney being played in the Thomas & Mack, where UNLV seems to never lose, it’s hard to see any other team coming out with the tournament title. That puts a premium back on the regular season, and the race to the finish line starts that anew next weekend.
See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.