Knudson: How Bad Will the Frogs Miss Matt Purke?

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
April 22, 2011

When a team loses a player to injury who is projected to be a high first round draft choice, it’s reasonable to predict some doom and gloom. In the case of the star lefty Matt Purke and the TCU Horned Frogs, that may not be necessary. Yet.

First, it’s important to note that we don’t know exactly what Purke’s injury status is. The uber-talented sophomore lefthander, who dominated during his freshman season a year ago, has not been much of himself this season. His stats are decent: 4-1 with a nice 1.55 ERA, but he just hasn’t been the Matt Purke we came to know a season ago. It was determined after his last outing against San Diego State, where he pitched just four innings and gave up a single earned run in an 8-2 victory, that something was amiss.

TCU made the decision to shut Purke down. Someone in Purke’s camp likely made the decision to have him evaluated by the best orthopedic surgeon out there. What we know right now is that due to soreness and weakness in his left shoulder, Purke is being examined by renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews. That’s all we know.

Mention the word orthopedic surgeon and alarm bells go off. It remains possible that Purke will need a surgeon to fix what ails him. That’s the worst-case scenario and that would be very bad news for Purke, the Frogs and MLB. But the more likely scenario, since Purke was still pitching effectively up until last weekend, is that this action was taken before he reached the need surgery stage. If that’s the case, then what will happen next is Purke and the TCU medical staff will begin a series of shoulder strengthening exercises designed on getting Purke’s shoulder back to full strength in time for the post season. There could be a cortisone shot involved, which is bad news for a whole different reason, but everything will be designed to have him full strength by tournament time.

I saw Dr. Andrews for a sore knee during my minor league days. He examined me, gave me some stretching and exercises to do and my knee was better in a matter of a few days. He’s not looking to cut open Purke’s shoulder unless it’s absolutely necessary.

Regardless, Purke is out for at least a few weeks. Will his absence derail the TCU Express?

In a word, no.

TCU will not miss Matt Purke during the remainder of the Mountain West Conference regular season. They have another capable starting pitcher in Andrew Mitchell, who can slide into the weekend rotation and the Frogs will be just fine.

TCU is going to win the MWC regular season title going away. After beating UNLV ace Tanner Peters to move to 11-2 in Conference play, their toughest hurdles have already been cleared. This is not to say that TCU won’t drop another Conference game or two along the way, but no MWC team is going to overtake them for the regular season title. Remember: TCU still has the league’s leading pitcher in Kyle Winkler, who’s now 7-1 after his complete game win over UNLV and last year’s MWC Pitcher of the Year, Steven Maxwell, who’s unbeaten going into this weekend’s match with the Rebels.

TCU remains a good bet to win at least two of three the rest of the way, meaning the regular season title and top seed in the Conference tourney is pretty much a lock.

After that, things could get dicey.

First, having Mitchell move into the weekend rotation means Erik Miller would have to step up and improve on his performance in weekday games. These games remain very important to the Frogs RPI and post season seeding situations. Miller will actually pitch against UNLV on Friday night, because Mitchell beat Texas A&M on Tuesday night (boosting TCU’s RPI 10 spots to #27.) If Miller is successful, he could even stay in the midweek slot. Coming up is another game with Oklahoma next Tuesday and Baylor down the road.

These are must wins if TCU wants a host position in post season play.

If Purke is not available for the post season, the Frogs are still a good bet to win the Conference tourney, but moving into NCAA Regional and Super Regional play is a different matter altogether. At that point, you need all your guns, especially your big ones.

If Purke can’t return for the post season, then TCU’s return ticket to Omaha could very likely be cancelled.

See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.