Knudson: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

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By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
June 13, 2011

A day of celebration leads to several more days of contemplation for Tanner Peters.

Coming off a stellar season that saw him selected by the league coaches as the Mountain West Conference Pitcher of the Year, Peters was selected in the 16th round by the Oakland A’s in last week’s Major League Baseball amateur draft.

Now, the slender right-hander has to decide if he should sign with the A’s or return to UNLV for his senior season.

Many of us thought Peters would go higher in this draft. His performance this season should’ve earned him a selection in the top ten rounds. His size - 6’ 0” 150 lbs. - undoubtedly worked against him. It’s something he’s going to have to overcome at the next level as well.

Most importantly, Peters showed solid growth as a pitcher from his sophomore year to his junior season. Last year, he was more of a thrower, trying to strike out every hitter. This season under Tim Chambers, Peters learned to pitch more, using his change up and breaking pitches to get more outs earlier in the count. While Peters threw more innings this season, he undoubtedly threw fewer pitches. And there was still a big batch of strikeouts.

He has shown durability as well. Those 112 innings pitched are a lot in a two and a half month season. Seven complete games is almost unheard of nowadays. TCU’s Kyle Winkler, who was neck-and-neck in every statistical category with Peters most of the season, finally broke down in mid May and never reached 100 innings. Winkler’s health is now a mystery. Close observers believe he could have a serious elbow injury. Arizona drafted him in the 10th round - six rounds ahead of Peters. Go figure.

Does size matter? The success of San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum has opened new doors for young pitchers who maybe aren’t 6’ 5” and 225 pounds. UCLA’s Trevor Bauer, all 6’ 2” (yea, right) and 185 lbs. of him, was the third player picked in the draft. Peters fits the same mold both in physical stature and slightly unorthodox delivery. When Lincecum was drafted, most scouts thought he’d never be able to hold up physically because he was small and used so much effort in his motion. He’s proven them (and me) wrong. Bauer and Peters may be able to do the same thing. Time will tell.

So the question facing Peters right now is this: Does he leave UNLV a year early to sign with Oakland and take his shot at professional baseball or does he return to try to improve himself and his draft stock for next year?

If he signs, he’ll be able to get an immediate start on his professional baseball career and then return to UNLV down the road to finish work on his degree if he so chooses. However, he probably won’t get a lot in the signing bonus department either way. He’ll get something, but it won’t be money he can live on for very long. Could he get more next year? That’s doubtful. Without the bargaining chip of being able to return to school, he would be in a take it or leave it negotiating situation next year at this time.

At this stage, being a junior and a 16th round pick, Peters’ decision really can’t be about money. It has to be about how fast he can improve himself and get to the big leagues, which is where the real money is anyway.

If I were in Peters’ cleats (and I’m not because I wasn’t drafted after my junior year and then went in the third round after my senior season at Colorado State so I never faced a decision like this) I would sign with Oakland right now and get myself to Single A ball tomorrow to start my climb. There are guys you will be competing with for promotions who are already working hard for the A’s minor league teams. As a 16th round pick, every outing will matter.

Every player is different. For example, if I were Winkler or Matt Purke, because of the injuries and the way their season’s unfolded, I would return to school. But Peters had a great season and there are no questions about him at the moment. Winkler and Purke have more to prove at the college level health and durability wise. Peters doesn’t. He’d have to match this season or even better it to put himself in position to get drafted higher and he’d still likely start out at the same level. As things stand, he’ll likely be sent to high Class A ball right away since he already has three years of college experience. After seeing what he did this season, I think he’s ready for that level of competition.

In most cases, I promote the idea of kids staying in school. But you can’t just throw a blanket over every single player and judge them all the same way. Peters had an exceptional season. Therefore, he’s the exception to the rule.

P.S. – He should still return to Las Vegas and finish his degree later on.

See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.