Knudson: Purke and Winkler Face Decision Time

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
August 3, 2011
 
A big decision is looming for a couple of TCU Horned Frogs. Is the time right to turn pro or is returning to Fort Worth a better idea? That’s what pitchers Matt Purke and Kyle Winkler have to decide before the August 15 deadline - sign a professional baseball contract or return to school.
 
Before the season began, this looked like a slam-dunk. A pair of All-Americans, both men were sure-fire first rounders and were going to lead TCU back to Omaha in their final seasons in purple. As the year unfolded, Winkler stepped up and pitched even better than projected, while Purke battled injuries and couldn’t find a groove. Then, at the end of what had been a sensation season, Winker got hurt just as Purke was trying to come back. In other words, pretty much nothing went as planned and both were question marks as the season ended short of that return trip to the College World Series.
 
Now, after Winkler was drafted in the 10th round by the Arizona Diamondbacks and Purke in the third (96th pick) by the Washington Nationals, both pitchers are pondering their immediate futures.
 
Conventional wisdom, whatever that means, says that Winkler will likely sign with the D-Backs. As a junior, he still has some bargaining power, so if healthy, he could get a bonus slightly better than what his draft round would call for. Plus, he has the chance to go to a solid organization like Arizona. We still don’t know the extent of his arm injury, but you can be sure the D-Backs do, so if Winkler signs in the next two weeks, that will mean he is pretty much A-OK.
 
As for Purke, it’s a bit more complicated. Remember, he was a high first round pick just two years ago out of high school, so signing now would mean a lot of potential lost income. If he bounces back next season, Purke could return to the top of the draft and get a check with an extra zero on it.
 
The feeling out there, and this is just a lot of people guessing, is that Purke, who elected not to play summer baseball again this year and instead is just working out at home, will come back to TCU for his junior season. Not signing after a subpar sophomore year (he was eligible because of his age) will not hurt his bargaining power next year at this time. And, by electing not to “showcase” himself this summer and prove he was 100%, Purke eliminated the chance for the Nationals to evaluate his actual worth at this moment. Had he gone out and pitched this summer like he did in 2010, he may have been able to command first round money. On the flip side, if he didn’t and still looked hurt, his stock could have dropped even more. Apparently, Purke feels it’s better to remain something of a mystery.
 
So as things stand, Washington has nothing much to base an offer on, so when it comes at the 11th hour, who knows what that offer will look like. Remember, the Nationals already have a former MW star in Stephen Strasburg on the roster and he, too, is rehabbing from an arm injury. They paid him a monster signing bonus two years ago and then paid top pick Bryce Harper big dollars last summer as well. DC will shell out for young talent, but you would think they’d need to see what they are paying for.       
 
All this makes it a good bet that Purke will be a Horned Frog again in 2012, perhaps a very unexpected and pleasant bonus for head coach Jim Schlossnagle. Who knows, if Purke bounces back and returns to 2010 form, he could be the top pick in next year’s draft.
 
There’s still hope if you’re a Nats fan, of course. Nothing has been decided yet. Just imagine a DC rotation with both Purke and Strasburg at 100%. Wow. It still could happen.
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