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Knudson: Cue the Music

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
March 12, 2012

This time, there’s no screaming about anyone getting snubbed. The Mountain West got four teams - half the league - into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, aka the Big Dance. Cue the music and let the dancing begin.

League champ New Mexico will go in as a #5 seed and travel to Portland to face 12th-seeded Long Beach State. Both San Diego State and UNLV go in seeded sixth in their respective regions, meaning they get #11 seeds North Carolina State and Colorado, respectively. The Aztecs and Wolfpack play in Columbus, Ohio while the Rebels get the benefit of playing the Buffs in The Pit in Albuquerque. The Conference’s fourth team, Colorado State, earned an 11th-seed as an at-large and will face 11th-ranked Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. All the Racers did was go 30-1 this season and win every road game they played. We all know the road was not real kind to the Rams.

Every fan can look at almost every pairing and find something intriguing about it. Certainly there are interesting facets to all four of these match-ups. It’s been nine years since Colorado State pulled a shocking upset, winning the MW tournament before falling to Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament. This time, the Rams first round date in the Blue Grass State against the Racers certainly seems to favor the local guys – Murray State is just a 3½ hour drive from Louisville, so this will be a de facto home game for them. Working in the Rams favor is that Murray State is neither very big nor very good on the boards. Actually, they’re very similar in style to CSU.

Nothing favorable about the assignment facing San Diego State. Even though they’re the higher seed, the Aztecs must travel across the country (then again, they do need to get used to that, right?) to face ACC upstart North Carolina State. The Wolfpack is still smarting from a controversial last second loss to arch rival North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, so there’s no telling how they will react to that loss less than a week later. The Aztecs will undoubtedly have their hands full.

New Mexico has a pretty good set up. Yes, Long Beach State has a short trip up the coast, but it’s not a terrible trip for the Lobos, either. While both teams come in pretty hot, the 49ers are just 1-7 against teams in the tournament field. I’ve said it before and I will stand by the statement: New Mexico is the best team in America west of Lawrence, Kansas. Yes, that includes Gonzaga. It’s fair to expect them to prove it against an inferior 49ers squad.

For my money, the most interesting match-up is UNLV taking on Pac 12 tournament champion Colorado on MW turf. Ironically, just like Colorado State, it’s also been nine years since Colorado made the dance. These Buffs surprising run through the Pac 12 tourney – they were the 6th seed and won four games in four days – got them the automatic bid from the less-than-stellar Pac 12. This is the same Colorado team that was whipped at home earlier in the season by Wyoming and lost a nail-biter in Fort Collins to CSU. On paper, it’s a game the talented Rebels should win. But the game isn’t played on paper, and motivation and passion will be a factor. These are not areas the Rebels have excelled in down the stretch.
 
Meanwhile, the young Buffs are athletic and erratic at the same time. Not much was expected of them before the season began, but Coach Tad Boyle, who has been to the tourney before as a player and an assistant, was able to get them focused for the Pac 12 tourney in a way that few expected. The Buffs get solid contributions from several role players and are not unlike Colorado State in a lot of ways. The Rams used grit and passion to overcome the Rebels a couple weeks back.
 
You can make a case for the MW teams to win all four first round match-ups. You can also see a way all four could lose. Most likely it will fall in between. Looking ahead, there’s an unlikely but potential second round match-up between CSU and BYU should the Cougars pull an upset and win twice by next weekend.  Should the Lobos win twice, they could meet up with Big 10 bully Michigan State in round three, and if the Rebels can get past CU and probably Baylor, they could potentially face a third round tilt against Notre Dame.  

Plenty at stake and plenty of Conference pride to play for. Let the Madness begin!
See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.