Knudson: Good News and Bad for Horned Frogs

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
April 13, 2011

If you’re a TCU baseball fan, this is sort of a good news, bad news kind of column.

First, the good news: Things have not changed much in the Mountain West Conference. The Horned Frogs have been and will continue to be the team to beat as the Conference season continues to unfold. From here, there doesn’t appear to be any way anyone can catch them as they close in on a sixth straight regular season title. That carries with it the top seed in the all-important MWC tournament.

So far this season, the offense has been solid if not spectacular. Brance Rivera, who’s hitting north of .380, fashioned a nice 29-game hitting streak earlier in the year and several other players, like Tyler Featherston and Aaron Schultz, have put together nice stats during the first half of the season.

On the mound, pre-season All-American Kyle Winkler (5-1, 1.26 ERA) has been brilliant – winning Conference Pitcher of the Week three times already. Highly touted sophomore (and also a pre-season All-American) Matt Purke has dropped off a bit from where he was a season ago when he dominated the league, but he’s still 4-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Third starter and reigning Conference Pitcher of the Year Steven Maxwell (5-0, 3.00 ERA) has been strong as well.

These three starters – the main reason TCU was the preseason No. 1 team – continue to give the Horned Frogs a substantial advantage going into almost any weekend series they play, and that goes for the Conference season and the post season. No team in the country has a better starting threesome.

The Frogs are sitting at 22-11 and were ranked No. 9 in the latest poll. They lead the MWC in hitting, ERA and fielding percentage.

That’s the good news (which came before they were blitzed 13-6 by Oklahoma on Tuesday night in Norman.)

Now the bad news, which explains why the pre-season No. 1 team now resides near the bottom of the Top 10: Bullpen issues have resulted in six losses in the opponents’ final at bat and have stained what has otherwise been a solid season-long effort. If TCU could have closed the deal and won, say, four of those six games, they’d be 26-7 and no one is worried. But aside for the big three and freshman Andrew Mitchell (2-0, 0.52 ERA), it has often times been a struggle on the hill, which is also a big reason TCU is just 1-8 in one run games so far this season.

The other struggle, which is also related to the first, is that inexplicably the pre-No. 1 team has lost midweek games to Dallas Baptist, Houston Baptist, UT Arlington and Stephen F. Austin this season. Middling teams Kansas and Houston also came into Fort Worth and grabbed a victory during the nonconference slate. And, the marquee non-league series in Fort Worth vs. Cal State Fullerton resulted in two wins in three games for the visiting Titans

While it’s easy to see TCU winning the MWC again and then hosting a NCAA regional in Fort Worth, the crystal ball gets fuzzy after that. Their stated goal has been to play host in the following round, the NCAA Super Regional, the best of three series that determines the final eight teams that advance to Omaha.

That goal appears to be a long shot at best right now.

Much like basketball, college baseball uses the Ratings Performance Index (RPI) to measure teams for the post season. Normally, the top eight teams in the RPI are selected to host Super Regional series. The Frogs were just outside that area last season (RPI #11) and were forced to play a three game set in Austin, Texas against the Longhorns. In surprising fashion, the Frogs stunned the ‘Horns and advanced to Omaha.

But that was taking the hard road to the College World Series. TCU went into this season seeking a slightly easier path. Hosting a Super Regional provides a huge advantage that every team wants. But you have to earn it, largely with your fourth starting pitcher during midweek games against out of conference foes like the Sooners.

That part hasn’t worked out as planned.

All this adds up to a RPI of around #33 for TCU with roughly a month to go. That gets you in but it doesn’t earn you a host spot. Meanwhile, regional rivals Texas A&M, Southern Mississippi, Arkansas and yes, Texas, are all hovering in the mid-teens or better, positioning themselves as a more likely host site and possible destination for TCU should the Frogs survive the first round.

There’s a lot of season left. Things could improve.

But right now, that smooth path the Frogs were shooting for is looking bumpy. If they’re going to make it back to Omaha, they’re probably going to have to travel many of the same roads as they did a season ago.

See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.