Knudson: Slim Pickings

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
September 29, 2011
 
As the season rolls on the predicting gets tougher, but who’d think things would go so sideways last week?

San Diego State came out surprisingly flat in Ann Arbor – maybe they hadn’t heard enough about that Dennard Robinson character at Michigan? The Aztecs’ performance is hard to explain. Add that to a pair of big time disappointments in Albuquerque, where New Mexico fell in OT to Sam Houston State and Mike Locksley lost his job and then in Las Vegas, where the Rebels fell apart in the second half and were drubbed by Southern Utah.

Not many saw those coming.
 
Those three losses take some of the luster off routine non-conference wins by Air Force, TCU, Boise State and a sensational double overtime comeback win by Colorado State over Utah State.
 
So, a 5-3 week leaves us at 23-5 on the season with some toughies to pick this week. And a 0-2 ledger against the BCS teams last week leaves the MW at 2-8 for the season. Three teams are off this week, meaning a short slate of game to forecast and watch.
 
Game of the Week:  Air Force (2-1) at Navy (2-1)
 
Even the national media doesn’t mistake this game for just another service academy meeting between also-rans. Both these teams are very good at what they do, and there’s even more than the coveted Commander in Chief’s Trophy at stake. Both are fighting to reach a higher rung on the national ladder and one needs to beat the other in order to get there.
 
Both teams have had two wins over cupcakes to this point, and each has dropped a hard fought game to a nationally ranked team. The difference is Navy lost by three at South Carolina while the Falcons were drubbed at home by TCU.
 
This could very well still be Troy Calhoun’s best team ever. If so, this would be a good week to step up and prove it. Oh, and a trip to Notre Dame is on tap for the Falcons next week.
 
Navy 24, Air Force 21
 
Nevada (1-2) at Boise State (3-0)
 
Few will ever forget last year’s game between these former and future conference rivals. You know Boise State won’t. The amazing outcome cost the Broncos a shot at a BCS berth and launched the Wolf Pack into the national spotlight.
 
Nevada isn’t the team they were last season but they’re close. A in a last second defeat at Texas Tech, they racked up more than 500 yards of total offense. Can the Broncos defense slow them down?
 
The answer is, yes. A highly motivated Broncos D will show up ready to play and do enough to win. When you add up the circumstances: last year’s comeback, no Colin Kaepernick and a game on the blue turf, it all points to a comfortable win for the Broncos.
 
Boise State 44, Nevada 31
 
SMU (3-1) at TCU  (3-1)
 
The Mustangs want to join the Big 12, the same conference that’s afraid to add TCU. SMU started the season against Big 12 member (for now) Texas A&M and got drilled. They’ve beaten three also-rans since, but the feeling here is that TCU is more like A&M than Northwestern State.
 
The Frogs have been starting slowly the past couple of weeks, but this is still at some level a rivalry game, so it would be a surprise if TCU didn’t come out more than ready to play.
 
TCU 37, SMU 13  
 
New Mexico State (1-3) at New Mexico (0-4)
 
It’s hard to predict how a team will respond to an in-season coaching change. Whatever you want to say about Mike Locksley, you know there are players in the Lobo locker room that care a lot about him and are hurting right now.
 
How will the Lobos respond in what should be the most winnable game left on their schedule?
 
New Mexico State has a won the last two meetings and comes in having already captured a road win against Big Ten team Minnesota. They have also lost their last two games to so-so competition, so we aren’t talking about a juggernaut or anything, just a decent team not dealing with any distractions.
 
New Mexico State 23, New Mexico 20  
 
San Jose State (1-3) at Colorado State (3-1)
 
There might not be enough adjectives to describe the importance of CSU’s dramatic double OT win at Utah State last Saturday. It could be a program changer. However, that will only be the case if the Rams can follow it up with a solid win against a team they should handle at home. The CSU defense will have to continue to play solid while the offense tries to find a groove.
 
Colorado State 30, San Jose State 17
See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.