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Knudson: End Game for the BCS?

By Mark Knudson,  The Mtn. Insider
January 9, 2012

The Mountain West has applied for and should receive (if facts matter, that is) Automatic Qualifier status for the BCS for 2012 and 2013. An AQ would guarantee that the champion of the MW would play in a BCS bowl next season. Will the application be approved? You probably already know the answer. Facts? The BCS doesn’t need facts.

We don’t need to rehash the stories of the BCS busters or the many more teams that were screwed over – like both Boise State and TCU were this season – by the current BCS system. We already know it’s a mess, and despite the fact that the Conference can substantiate it’s case, it’s not likely that the agenda and greed of the current members of the BCS cartel will suddenly vanish and they’ll decide to do the right thing.

No, it’s unlikely that an AQ slot will ever be granted to a conference other than the ones that already have them.  Cartels don’t like new members.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the BCS is in for some sort of change. And it could be both dramatic and favorable for the MW. But what’s more likely to happen than for the MW being granted AQ status is for the AQ to be eliminated altogether.

It makes perfect sense if you think about it. With the parameters having been met by the MW, a rejection of the Conference’s application sets up the BCS cartel up to be the target of legal action. How do you defend yourself when the facts are stacked against you? You run a reverse; find a way to get yourself off the hook from both a legal standpoint and from constant criticism while still maintaining control of the money making machine.
 
No, the BCS isn’t going away altogether; they’re just going to reinvent themselves. The new BCS is going to feature either two or four teams playing at least a BCS Championship “Super Bowl” type game and maybe two semifinal games before that, all independent of the bowl games. This would allow the BCS to continue to control the extremely lucrative championship of college football without the headaches that come with stuff like AQ’s and games that don’t really mean anything. It would also leave the bowl games and the conferences to negotiate their own bowl tie-ins just like they used to.
 
That would at least give the MW and the other non-BCS conferences equal access to bowl games based on merit, which would be a pleasant change. And here’s the ironic part: The MW’s best ally in the fight against the BCS will be the almighty Southeastern Conference. No, the SEC is not prepared to stand up and demand that the MW get an AQ slot - far from it. But the SEC does believe, if only for selfish reasons, that the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conference shouldn’t receive automatic bids, either.  The Mountain West wants one slot. The SEC wants no limits on access to the biggest bowl games so that their conference could conceivably get three or more in a given year. What the two leagues have in common is that both conferences believe that guaranteeing slots to the champs of the Big East and the ACC is like guaranteeing a trip to the Super Bowl to the winner of the AFC West.
 
What the SEC wants, the SEC usually gets. Therefore, it’s likely that we will see the BCS downsize and upgrade at the same time. No more AQ, no more complaints from the MW or anyone else.

It’s a move that will also remove much of the reason for teams to change conferences.

If the BCS reconfigures in this manner, could this dissuade Boise State and San Diego State from moving to the Big East? Maybe. They’d have much less to gain. The Big East TV money, which most people don’t realize has not been guaranteed yet and is not likely to be significantly better than what the MW teams are currently getting, shouldn’t be enough reason to downgrade all your other sports and place your football team in a lesser conference full of hardships and uncertainty.

Yes, solve the mess of the BCS and you could finally see an end to conference realignment. That’s just another perk of ending their cartel. 
See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.