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Knudson: Rethinking Realignment?

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
January 12, 2012

If they knew then what they are about to find out, how many colleges would still jump at the chance to switch conferences? What we know is that change is coming to college football’s BCS system, in some form or another.

Everything is on the table, according to BCS big wigs. That includes the elimination of the Automatic Qualifier stipulation as well as the likelihood of some sort of mini playoff that keeps the big bowls in place but adds to the BCS championship game.

Without the AQ, conferences like the Big East and the ACC are in trouble. The champs of those football-poor conferences will have a very hard time earning a spot in any of the major bowl games.  That’s great news, of course, for the Southeastern Conference, which wants to have three or four teams involved in big bowls and playoffs, and for the Mountain West, which would love to see the Big East and the ACC cut down to proper size and placed behind the MW in the college football pecking order, where they belong.

Much could end up being different about the way college football handles its postseason. So we have to ask: If big changes are made to the BCS and much of what was enticing to schools to switch conferences is revamped or even removed, which schools will be having second thoughts about making a switch in the first place?

Safe to say that Nebraska and Colorado would do it all over again, considering they didn’t leave the Big 12 to improve their BCS positioning, rather for a more economically stable conference. Those moves were not crimes against geography and the only rivalry implications were ending Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, which the Big 12 had essentially killed off already, and Nebraska vs. Colorado, which the Huskers refused to be part of in the first place. So essentially, no damage was done by those moves that hadn’t already been done by the formation of the Big 12 itself.

How about the rest of the moves? What are they thinking in Salt Lake City right now? Provo? Fort Worth? Boise?

As I’ve said many times, TCU’s move to the Big 12 is one that actually makes sense (until you read a little further, that is…). Geographically, it makes sense and it renews a long rivalry with Baylor and heats up rivalry games with Texas, Oklahoma, etc.
 
Can you say the same thing for Utah and BYU? Their football game last September was hardly noticed, a far cry from the previous “Holy War” games that annually stamped the end to the regular season. What do the Utes think right now after getting pushed around in their first season in the Pac 12? How about BYU? Win 10 games and virtually no one notices. Such is life as a second tier independent.
 
Before you toss out the TV money each school is making, although the true benefits of that won’t kick in for another year or so, consider this: If the BCS goes to a Final Four sort of playoff, which is more than possible, that means each team, regardless of conference, ranked No. 4 or higher at the end of the regular season will be part of that playoff.  Imagine the dollars involved in that. The BCS Sugar Bowl payoff that Utah received at the end of the 2008 season was nice, but compare that to what the Utes and their MW Conference brethren would’ve received from participating in a playoff.  Not only could the Utes have gotten a true shot at the National Title that they were robbed of that unbeaten season, but they would’ve earned a massive paycheck in the process.

Now ask yourself this: How likely is it that Utah will go unbeaten through the Pac 12 any year soon and get another shot like that? If a playoff comes into existence, will Pac 12 member Utah ever get a shot at participating?

An example: In 2010, TCU went unbeaten and finished the regular season ranked No. 3 in the BCS poll. Whipped Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finished the season ranked No. 2. Another nice paycheck, a pat on the back and a “nice job, guys” from the BCS. Again, if a Final Four playoff is in existence, the payoff on and off the field is much bigger for the Horned Frogs. So we ask: How likely is TCU to end up unbeaten again and in that same position as a member of the Big 12?

Boise State can now gaze forward and answer the same question: While posting another unbeaten season playing in the Big East would probably be easier than it would be in the MW, and if the opportunities and potential benefits will be virtually the same, is moving – while demoting your other sports – worth it?
 
The BCS big wigs are just starting to look at the options in front of them. Keeping tabs on what goes on the rest of the offseason will be more entertaining than watching Alabama and LSU kick field goals.
Read all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.