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Knudson: Will 100 Wins Get Five In?


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By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
February 14, 2011

The Mayor of Bracketville slammed his hand on the studio desk and declared, “five in.”

Is there a chance? Barring a collapse, the Mountain West Conference will have five men’s college basketball teams win 20 games or more this season.

According to former college coach and current Mtn. studio analyst, Marty Fletcher, (who we affectionately refer to as the Mayor of Bracketville for his expertise on the NCAA basketball tournament) those 100 wins could add up to all five of those MWC teams: San Diego State, BYU, Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico getting bids to March Madness.

After getting four teams in last season, it was considered a long shot for the Conference to match that number this season, although it still very well could be. No one knows what could happen between now and Selection Sunday; on Selection Sunday, surprises are commonplace.

It would not be a total shock if the MWC only landed two or maybe three teams into the Big Dance.

But what a coup it would be for the Conference to toss recent history out the window and land as many bids to the big dance as some of the so-called “power conferences” like the Big 12. Right now, the only conferences with a better conference RPI are the Big East, Big Ten and Big 12. Yep. The ACC trails the MWC.    

With San Diego State and BYU ranked in the top ten, the concern for those teams is not whether or not they’ll get in but how high they could each get seeded. As of right now, BYU holds the No. 1 spot in the RPI rankings with SDSU No. 4. Both could conceivably be No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.

The other three teams have to be considered “bubble” teams. Depending upon who you read and listen to, one or two of them – in various orders – are a good bet to get in. “It will be UNLV and Colorado State” or “It will be Colorado State and New Mexico” or “It will be New Mexico and UNLV.”

No one can say for sure, making this the most important stretch drive in Conference history.  

The case for:

Colorado State. A feel good story to be sure but the selection committee is devoid of emotion. A 15-point win at UNLV will matter as will a decent performance (until late in the game) at Kansas. A third-place finish in the fourth ranked RPI conference in the country and a team RPI at No. 39 helps the cause a lot.  

UNLV has a huge win over Wisconsin, the only team to beat top-ranked Ohio State to this point in the season, and a hard fought loss at Louisville. Their RPI is very solid at No. 29.

New Mexico. The Lobos are the only Conference team so far to upset BYU and any win over a top ten team carries a lot of weight. Add in non-conference wins over Arizona State, Colorado and Texas Tech. Their RPI rating is a bubblicious No. 68.

The case against:

Colorado State. Along with those monster strides the program has made this year are a couple of inexplicable losses that could really come back to haunt them. Sam Houston State and Hampton shouldn’t beat an NCAA tourney team.

UNLV.  A home loss to UC Santa Barbara doesn’t look too great and getting beat badly by CSU on their home floor puts extra emphasis on the rematch in Fort Collins.

New Mexico. When was the last time a fifth place team in a non-BCS conference got a bid? Losses to Northern Iowa and Dayton don’t help but don’t hurt as much as Conference losses to Wyoming and Utah.

What has to happen:

Colorado State. Wins against TCU and Air Force on the road and against UNLV and Utah at home. Play decent games and don’t get blown out on the road against BYU and SDSU.

UNLV. A road win at any of the three: San Diego State, CSU or BYU will probably make them a lock. Obviously can’t stumble against Air Force or Wyoming and the game against New Mexico in the Pit will he huge.

New Mexico. How huge? The Lobos must beat UNLV at home. In fact, assuming they don’t slip up against Utah, Air Force or TCU, the game against UNLV could decide their postseason fate.

The Conference Tournament?

BYU and SDSU will be playing for NCAA seeding. Still, it will be a huge upset if one of them does not win the tournament.

For the other three, assuming they do what they need to do the rest of the regular season, avoid a first round loss and hope that your 20 win season carries enough weight.

Those 100 wins might just add up to “five in.”

Read all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.
ALL TIMES MOUNTAIN

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