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Knudson: Bowl Season Not Banner This Time

By Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
December 29, 2011
 
This time around, there will be no Bowl Challenge Cup celebration at Mountain West HQ. It’s sort of fitting that in a season of upheaval, there can now only be a focus on the task that lies ahead. A disappointing 2-3 showing in the postseason this year will be a distant memory by the time the new look MW kicks off the 2012 season.
 
What we already know: Next season, the MW will look very different – again – with addition and subtraction. TCU will be off to join the Big 12 (again, it’s hard to argue with a move that makes geographic and “rivalry” sense) while Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii (football) take up residency and renew some old rivalries. There will be new head coaches at Colorado State, where current Alabama offensive coordinator, Jim McElwain, will take over and at New Mexico, where former Notre Dame head man Bob Davie will resume his coaching career. Other than that, it’s pretty much the same ole, same ole…
 
Who will be the pre-season favorite in 2012? Boise State will be hit hard by graduation; they’ll be in a situation similar to what TCU faced going into this year. The Frogs dropped a pair of games early then came on down the stretch, so it’s safe to figure that while the Broncos may not win at Michigan State next September, they will be a force by the time to league race takes shape. San Diego State will also have some key parts to replace, as will Air Force. Both also figure to take a small step back.
 
UNLV isn’t quite ready yet, and you have to figure that while CSU and New Mexico may see some immediate improvement, they probably won’t be factors in the league race. Fresno State and Hawaii will also be breaking in a new head coach, and it may take them a bit to get rolling. Nevada should be tough and in the mix, as well as Wyoming, fresh off an 8-win season and returning the player – Brett Smith – who is arguably the best returning quarterback in the Conference. Wyoming may be the team most likely to battle Boise for the MW crown in 2012.
 
What we think we know: The partnership/affiliation with Conference USA will be laid out in greater detail in the coming months. It could end up being more than just a joint venture football title game. Stay tuned on that. Both leagues are facing more upheaval in the coming months, so that agreement may get altered somewhat.
 
What we don’t know: Then there’s the ever present question about the MW and the BCS. The Conference has applied for automatic qualifying status for 2012 and 2013. The league has met and exceeded the stated minimum requirements in two of three evaluation categories over the last four year evaluation period and was barely short in the third. The MW has out-performed the Big East and the ACC in all three categories over that time. Both of those conferences have always gotten the benefit of the doubt from the BCS Presidential Oversight Committee and always kept their AQ status.
 
If decisions are based on just facts, then the MW would be a lock to get an AQ position for 2012 and maybe 2013. But sadly, opinions, agendas and greed will also factor into the decision, making it far from a certainty that the MW will take its rightful place at the BCS table, facts or no facts.
 
Then again, there’s no guarantee that the committee will vote to continue with the BCS in its current form when they meet next month. There’s a decent chance that the BCS will downsize itself and evolve into a championship game only deal, dumping the entire AQ process for the four major bowl games completely and leaving the conferences and those bowl games to make their own deals the old fashioned way. That would leave the BCS to stage a title game in the same format as the Super Bowl.
 
If that happens, what effect will it have on future conference realignment and the dispersement of TV dollars? Like I said, stay tuned. Now that the bowl season has ended, the drama is just beginning. 

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See all of Mark Knudson's blog entries HERE.