Knudson: What Happens in Vegas and Elsewhere
FacebookBy Mark Knudson, The Mtn. Insider
March 8, 2011
The Mountain West Conference men’s basketball tournament tips off soon and it’s possibly the most anticipated tournament in Conference history. The basketball world is expecting BYU v. San Diego State III and it will be an upset if that doesn’t occur. Everyone knows it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season and the Cougars are not the team they were when they beat the Aztecs twice in the past 10 weeks.
SDSU will have something to prove if the match-up materializes. These are a pair of Top 10 teams and, if they play again, expect another fierce battle.
But it’s not a lock to happen.
The host team, UNLV, is likely to get in the NCAA Tournament, which removes a bit of the mystery from the weekend. But the Rebels still have to be accounted for. No question playing at the Thomas & Mack is a big advantage for them, and if they had to win the tourney to get in, you could bet the place would be on fire. That’s not the situation now.
As things stand, UNLV has not played that great at home this season, so lacking desperation and not having established their home floor as a big advantage this year takes away a bit from the Rebels’ advantage, but doesn’t negate it.
Team with the most to play for?
Easy. Colorado State.
A couple of weeks ago, you could have said BYU or SDSU might be playing for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which is mighty important. But BYU did away with both those options by first beating the Aztecs for a second time and then imploding (slightly) with the Brandon Davies situation. Both teams are NCAA Tournament locks but neither will be a No. 1 seed, so neither has as much to play for.
Colorado State is playing for its tournament life. A win over New Mexico in the first game and then an upset of BYU in the semifinals would likely earn the Rams an at-large bid. But the only sure way for them to get in – as they did in 2003 – is to shock the hoops world and win the Conference tourney.
Team you should not want to play?
New Mexico.
The Lobos began the year very young and very raw. Only the presence of Dairese Gary held them together early. Then, Drew Gordon got eligible. Young guns like Kendall Williams and Tony Snell started to mature right before our eyes. Then the Lobos beat BYU. Twice.
They may not yet be the team they were last year at this time, but New Mexico is the dark horse to win this tournament and stamp themselves as the fourth team in from the MWC, all the while making themselves as a very early Conference title favorite for next season.
Potential upset?
Both New Mexico and Colorado State became bigger obstacles for BYU when Davies was dismissed from the team. The Lobos and Drew Gordon overwhelmed the Cougars inside in the first game Davies missed, and the Rams present a similar match up issue for BYU with Andy Ogide. Whichever team comes out of the No. 4 vs. No. 5 match-up will give the Cougars all they want and more.
The player with the most to prove?
Tre’Von Willis, UNLV.
Playing in front of the home crowd for the final time, Willis has a chance to lift his team and wash away the memories of a so-so season. A first team All-Conference selection last season, he was tabbed just second team this year after averaging only 14.5 points per game during the season and scoring 20 points or more just three times.
Willis didn’t help his cause by making critical comments about Jimmer Fredette earlier in the year and then not backing them up with better production on the court. Everyone’s watching now. This is his moment. The Rebels are going dancing, but will Willis be leading or following?
Who do MWC fans root against across the country?
Even with an expanded field, there are just so many openings to go to at-large teams. So if the goal of the MWC in general is to get that fourth team in (assuming CSU or New Mexico doesn’t win the MWC tourney) then other conferences cannot send unexpected entries.
So if you’re into scoreboard watching, and you’re wondering who could possibly take up a spot that the MWC could use, then you root against any team from a small or “mid major” conference that didn’t win their league during the regular season. This list would include teams like St. Mary’s, Utah State and Butler.
Also, “power conference” bubble teams like Alabama, Colorado, Michigan State, Michigan, Washington, Boston College and others are fighting for the same slots CSU and New Mexico are fighting for. Root for early exits for these teams from their conference tournaments.
No doubt the ball will have to bounce right elsewhere around the country for the MWC to get an extra at-large team into the field. But this is Vegas, where crazy things happen, right?
ALL TIMES MOUNTAIN
